The Deflation of Belief States

On the Revision of Probabilistic Belief States

In this paper we describe two approaches to the revision of probability functions. We assume that a probabilistic state of belief is captured by a counterfactual probability or Popper function, the revision of which determines a new Popper function. We describe methods whereby the original function determines the nature of the revised function. The rst is based on a probabilistic extension of S...

A Deflation Technique for Detecting Multiple Liquid Crystal Equilibrium States∗

Multiple equilibrium states arise in many physical systems, including various types of liquid crystal structures. Having the ability to reliably compute such states enables more accurate physical analysis and understanding of experimental behavior. This paper adapts and extends a deflation technique for the computation of multiple distinct solutions arising in the context of modeling equilibriu...

The Risk of Deflation

cerns that the United States and other economies could enter a sustained period of deflation, as did Japan in the 1990s and the United States during the Great Depression. Indeed, a popular version of the well-known Phillips curve model of inflation predicts that we are on the cusp of a deflationary spiral in which prices will fall at ever-increasing rates over the next several years. A sizable ...

The Risk of Deflation

The onset of financial instability in August 2007, which quickly spread across the world, raises a number of questions for policy makers. First, what are the roots of the crisis? Many factors have been emphasized in the debate, including the opacity of complex financial products; the excessive confidence in ratings; weak risk management by financial institutions; massive reliance on wholesale f...

Belief States and Narrow Content